Overview
After COVID19: The tourism industry’s future remains exceedingly uncertain. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is still wreaking havoc, with foreign tourism anticipated to drop by about 80% by 2020. Domestic tourism is helping to mitigate the impact, at least partially, and governments have taken amazing fast action to repair and reactivate the sector while protecting employees and companies. Many countries are also considering plans to establish a more resilient tourism sector in the aftermath of COVID-19.
These include developing plans to help tourism’s long-term recovery, encouraging the digital transition and transition to a greener tourism system, and reimagining tourism for the future. Tourism is still one of the industries hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic, and the future is bleak.
The OECD predicts that foreign tourism will drop by roughly 80% by 2020. Destinations that rely significantly on international, corporate, and events tourism are especially hard to hit, with many coastal, regional, and rural areas faring better than cities. Positive vaccine news has buoyed recovery prospects, but obstacles remain, with the industry anticipated to remain in survival mode until well into 2021. Domestic tourism has resumed, which is assisting in mitigating the impact on jobs and companies in several destinations. However, true recuperation will be achievable only after internment.
Restoring Traveler Confidence
Positive vaccine news has buoyed recovery prospects, but obstacles remain, with the industry anticipated to remain in survival mode until well into 2021. Domestic tourism has resumed, which is assisting in mitigating the impact on jobs and companies in several destinations.
However, true recovery will be achieved only when foreign tourism resumes. This necessitates worldwide cooperation and evidence-based solutions in order to securely ease travel restrictions. Without continuing government backing, the sustainability of enterprises throughout the tourism ecosystem is jeopardized, and governments have taken impressive measures to cushion the blow to tourism, minimize employment losses, and construct recovery programs.
While flexible policy solutions are required to allow the tourism industry to coexist with the virus in the short to medium term, it is also critical to look beyond this and take efforts to learn from the crisis, which has shown weaknesses in government and industry preparedness and response capabilities. Coordination of action across all levels of government and the corporate sector is critical.
Supporting Tourism to Adapt and Survive
The COVID-19 situation has had a significant impact on the tourism industry, with severe consequences for jobs and businesses. Tourism was one of the first industries to be severely hit by the pandemic, as measures to contain the virus resulted in a near-complete stop of tourism activities worldwide. With persistent travel restrictions and the global recession, the sector risks being among the last to recover. This has far-reaching implications beyond the tourism industry, as it has a considerable impact on the many other sectors that support and are supported by tourism.
The deteriorating hygienic crisis is exacerbating the unexpected shock to the tourism economy. While good news about vaccines has raised the spirits of both tourist businesses and travelers, issues persist. Vaccine rollout will take time, and the sector may see stop/start cycles for some time. This will erode business and traveler confidence, as well as business survival prospects. Despite the tourism industry’s demonstrated resistance to prior shocks, the sheer scope and combined economic and health aspect of the current crisis means that the route to recovery is extremely uncertain. While there has been considerable improvement in international tourism activities, this remains a concern.
Promoting Domestic Tourism
Domestic tourism is giving many tourism destinations and businesses a much-needed boost, and it will continue to be a significant driver of recovery in the short to medium term. Domestic tourist activity has increased since the middle of the year, owing in part to the displacement effects of foreign travel restrictions. However, this has been hampered as many nations face new outbreaks of the virus, and domestic tourism is likely to be much lower than pre-COVID levels by the end of the year. Domestic tourism in Spain and the United Kingdom, for example, is expected to fall by 45-50 percent in 2020. Furthermore, not all locations or businesses have benefited. This has very real economic and social ramifications for many people, places, and enterprises, as well as the overall economy. Tourism generates foreign currency, creates jobs and businesses, propels regional development, and strengthens local communities.
Evolving Response Measures
Millions of employment in the tourism industry are under threat as a result of the crisis. Tourism is a highly labor-intensive industry that employs a large number of low-skilled individuals in addition to higher-skilled workers. According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), the accommodation and food services sub-sectors alone employ 144 million people worldwide, with around 30 percent of those engaged in small tourism enterprises with 2–9 employees. Many of these professions are customer-facing, exposing workers to the virus’s health concerns (e.g. waiters, air stewards, hotel receptionists). Estimates at the national level reflect the magnitude of the impact on tourism, as well as the difficulties in making projections in a fast-moving and uncertain environment.
It is difficult to quantify the current and future implications of the crisis on the tourist sector, as the crisis has exposed flaws in tourism statistical information systems, such as a lack of robust, comparable, and timely data to inform policy and corporate decisions. The evidence available shows a precipitous reduction in foreign travel flows and tourism spending, as well as a contraction in domestic tourism activities.
Strengthening Cooperation Between Countries
The outlook for tourism is quite bleak, and recovery will be dependent on the interconnected effects of the economic and health crises on demand and supply-side issues. These include the pandemic’s evolution, the availability of a vaccine (or alternative control measures), and the lifting of travel restrictions, as well as the survival and readiness of businesses across the tourism ecosystem to meet demand, the effects on consumer confidence and travel behavior, and developments in the broader economy. The global magnitude and duration of the crisis, ongoing uncertainty, and the interconnected economic and health characteristics of this crisis distinguish it from any previous shock to the system.
Beyond the tourism industry, the pandemic has generated a global economic crisis, which has ramifications for tourism recovery. According to the OECD, global GDP would shrink by 4.2 percent in 2020 before rebounding to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021. The path forward seems brighter now that vaccine progress has raised hopes, but hurdles remain, and recovery will be uneven across countries and sectors. Many areas of the economy have recovered, but tourism and other industries have been slower to revive, weighing on recovery in many countries.
Long-Lasting Tourism Policy
Because of increased knowledge of climate change and the negative effects of tourism, sustainability may become more important in tourism choices. Natural regions, regional and local destinations are projected to fuel the recovery, while shorter travel lengths may reduce tourism’s environmental impact. Domestic tourism is projected to grow as individuals choose to stay close to home and visit places within their own country. Domestic tourists are frequently more price-conscious and have lower spending habits. The crisis, as well as the current uncertainties, have had a significant impact on traveler confidence. This could result in a drop in demand and tourism consumption that lasts for a long time after the initiative was launched.
The progression of the crisis, as well as longer-term consumer changes that are transforming the way people travel, will influence traveler behavior. This could include the formation of new market niches and sectors, as well as a greater emphasis on safety measures and contactless tourism experiences. Safety and cleanliness have become critical criteria in the selection of tourism sites and activities. When traveling, people are more likely to favor ‘private solutions,’ avoiding large crowds and prioritizing private modes of transportation, which may have a negative influence on the environment.
Forecasts for Tourism Recovery
Canada: Revised tourism forecasts from Destination Canada for July 2020 were predicated on the Canadian border reopening in January 2021. Destination Canada created two scenarios for 2020, each based on a different conversion rate of outbound Canadian tourists to domestic travel. Croatia: Tourism flow forecasts are updated every 15 days, based on an assessment of the most recent travel safety guidelines and epidemiological situation. This is informed by data from the e-Visitor system, which is updated daily. In 2020, tourism traffic is predicted to plummet by half. Switzerland: The number of overnight stays is expected to shrink by 34% by 2020, according to the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF).
The domestic demand fall is expected to be minor (down 14 percent), but the loss in overseas business will be severe (down by 55 percent ). Domestic and European demand is likely to gradually recover, while demand from overseas markets is not expected to revive until 2023. Hotel costs are also predicted to fall and recover in 2022, with the exception of a few hotspots. Fares on mountain railways could skyrocket if passenger numbers plummet dramatically. October 2020 (early). The primary scenario for domestic tourism predicts a 49 percent decrease in trips and expenditures.
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